Holed up

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The seasons are turning but markets not so much. Asia has met a limp lead from Wall Street with little confidence, as things slip into a holding pattern ahead of today’s U.S. jobs data and then a long weekend in the United States.

Bonds have taken a beating since Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole talk made clear that the Fed is going to hike and hold rates high, and after red-hot inflation readings in Europe.

Few seem game to sell a dollar that is sweeping all before it – pushing the euro below parity, the yen to the weaker side of 140 and sending the yuan toward the psychological 7-barrier.

Later today, G7 finance ministers meet to try and negotiate a price cap on Russian oil – an attempt at hurting Russian earnings and helping with energy costs.

But market eyes are firmly on the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August, with a strong report likely to intensify the view that rates are headed higher for longer.

Economists expect the pace of job growth to slow to 300,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at a historically low 3.5%. Anything in that ballpark could firm up expectations of a third consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike later this month.

Once that is out of the way, focus can move to next week’s European Central Bank meeting where pricing currently puts about an 80% probability of a 75 bp hike.

Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:

German trade data, euro zone PPI, U.S. non-farm payrolls